Christmas/Santa Claus Rally in Gold and Gold Miners: Seasonality, Rules, Backtest and Performance Analysis

Christmas Day is one of the federal holidays in the US. It’s a well-known “fact” that there is normally a Santa Claus rally in stocks, but do we see the same tendencies in the gold price? Is there a Christmas/Santa Claus rally in gold and gold miners? Is there an end-of-year rally? Let’s find out:

Since 1980 gold has performed well over the Christmas holiday season. Thus, we can argue there is a Christmas/Santa Claus rally in gold. There is also a very strong performance for Gold miners during the Christmas period.

This is a typical seasonal we cover in our Daily Trading Edge. You try it for 1 USD for a month! Please read more about our different memberships.

Let’s go on to see how gold performs during the last days of the year:

Table of contents:

The Christmas holiday

It was not until 1840 that celebrating Christmas became widespread around the world. Even later, in 1870, December 25 was declared a holiday in the US. Since then, Christmas Day has always been a federal holiday in the US. Also, the 24th of December is now a day when most markets close earlier.

For decades the Christmas holiday has been a strong period for stocks, but let’s look at how the gold price has fared during this season:

Santa Claus rally in gold?

Let’s go on to backtest to find out if there is a Santa Claus rally in gold. We make the following trading rules:

We buy gold at the close of the OP