The Best 6 Months Timing Model strategy by Yale Hirsch is an active and simple strategy that uses market timings and can be implemented using any asset class and portfolio.

Using this strategy, you do not need to be in the market 100% of the time and expose yourself to additional risk, unlike a passive/lazy strategy. You enter the market when the Best 6 Months Timing Model strategy gives an entry signal and exit when the strategy gives an exit signal.

In this article, we will describe in detail the structure of the Best 6 Months Timing Model strategy and backtest it on historical price data.

Looking ahead, we can say that according to our backtests over the past 16 years, the Best 6 Months Timing Model strategy has the following performance stats:

Compound annual return (CAR): 3.99%;
Maximum drawdown (MDD): -27.27%;
CAR/MDD ratio: 0.15;
Standard deviation: 11.68%;
Sharpe ratio (with a risk-free rate of 3%): 0.10.

Related reading: – You are perhaps searching for other investment strategies? (We have hundreds)

Table of contents:

Who Is Yale Hirsch

Yale Hirsch is the founder of the Hirsch Organization and creator of the famous Stock Trader’s Almanac.

The 1968 edition was the first edition, which allowed him to distill his lifelong interest in stock market history, cycles, and patterns into a practical working tool for the average investor. It was the first compilation of the market’s seasonal trends, combined with a calendar seasonality, and laid out for use by non-institutional investors. It also brought to the general public many “statistically predictable” market phenomena that have since become well known, such as the “Presidential Election Year Cycle”, “January Barometer”, “Santa Claus Rally”, and “Best Six Consecutive Months”.

The Hirsch Organization has also published several newsletters over the years, like Smart Money and Ground Floor, and currently publishes the Almanac Investor newsletter. It is a guide to market patterns, cycles, fundamental developments, strategies, and stock selection.

Mr. Hirsch wrote Don’t Sell Stocks on Monday in 1986 and The Capitalist Spirit: How Each and Every One of Us Can Make a Giant Difference in Our Fast-Changing World in 2010.

Yale Hirsch is frequently quoted in the press, including Barron’s, BusinessWeek, New York Times, and Wall Street Journal, and regularly appears on CNBC, FOX, Bloomberg, and CNN.

What Is The Best 6 Months Timing Model Portfolio

Since we need to have a portfolio to backtest this timing model, we will use the following five asset classes with equal portfolio weights:

Asset Class	Portfolio Weight
U.S. Stocks	20%
Foreign Stocks	20%
U.S. Bonds	20%
U.S. REITs	20%
World Commodities	20%

Stocks In The Best 6 Months Timing Model Portfolio

Stocks are equity securities representing an ownership share in a corporation and giving the right to receive dividends if paid. Historically, stocks have shown