For this backtest, we use the IBS indicator that measures where the asset’s close in relation to the price action that week (not day!). This has proven to be a good indicator for stocks because it’s a mean reversion indicator. We want to find out the following: The markets sold off and closed at the…
To many, trading stocks is all about making a single buy of a stock, waiting for it to reach your profit target, and exiting your trade. While that is an effective way to trade, you may be able to make more profits by trading around a core position if both your technical and fundamental analysis…
A trend reversal is a change in the direction of the price trend of an asset. This change in direction can be to the upside or downside. The trend reversal strategy is any analysis or trading technique a trader uses to identify the end of one trend and the beginning of another. Trend-reversal strategies can…
TLT vs SPY – Bond Rotation Strategy. Some days ago we published an ETF rotation strategy that rotates between SPY, TLT, and EEM based on monthly momentum. Today we look at a similar ETF sector momentum/rotation strategy but we exclude EEM: A SPY and TLT strategy (S&P 500 and 20 years Treasury bond). The SPY…
Are there any monthly seasonalities in TLT? Yes, just like in stocks there are some strong and weak months. August is, by far, the best month. We are now entering the best month over the last 20 years in long-term treasuries (TLT) – August. From the last closing price of July until the last in…
20+ treasury bonds (TLT) show a significantly different performance depending on the day of the week. Is there any day of the week effect in TLT? Let’s test some day of the week strategies. Assume we start with an account worth 100 000 and hold for one day and reinvest the profits. Below you find…
This article presents an ETF rotation strategy. Sector rotation is popular and this is not without merit. The idea is to be in the sector that shows the best recent momentum. Today we present an ETF momentum rotation trading strategy based on monthly data in EEM, SPY, and TLT. In this short article, we give…
Monthly Seasonality in Treasury Bills This article looks at monthly seasonalities in TLT. August has historically provided good returns for owners of 30-year US treasuries. I read about this seasonality many years back, but I’m quite surprised it still seems to be working pretty well. Below is an equity chart showing the return buying 200…
